Why are the shares of the ADAG Group falling?

Long-term development is more important to Allianz than the medium-term perspective. In addition to the well-known scenarios “world economic crisis like in the thirties” and “deflation a la Japan”, a “Yes we Keynes” perspective should be taken into account: Sustained growth as a result of the Keynesian programs. The fourth future vision, on the other hand, is bleak again. The people of Munich also consider high inflation with political instability to be possible, internally referred to as the “Argentina scenario”. "Of course, you have to prepare for that too," says Achleitner, "if you are oriented towards the long term."

    • Long-term development is more important to Allianz than the medium-term perspective. In addition to the well-known scenarios “World economic crisis like in the 1930s” and “Deflation a la Japan”, a “Yes we Keynes” perspective should be taken into account: Sustained growth as a result of the Keynesian programs. The fourth future vision, on the other hand, is bleak again. The people of Munich also consider high inflation with political instability to be possible, internally referred to as the “Argentina scenario”. "Of course, you have to prepare for that too," says Achleitner, "if you are oriented towards the long term."
    • Mixing and sprinkling
    • The Allianz solution? "Risk diversification is one of the most effective, if not the most effective investment policies at the end of the day, especially in times of great uncertainty about future developments," is Achleitner's answer. Because the primary concern is to meet customer liabilities and to optimize the free cash flow accordingly. Achleitner preached to analysts: "The goal is capital efficiency and not total return."


The insurance maxim “mix and spread” leads to a strategic mix depending on the segment. In German property and casualty insurance, it is best to drive with 80% interest-bearing, 15% stocks and 5% real estate, explains Achleitner. This helps to almost halve the group risk through diversification.

    • The insurance maxim “mix and spread” leads to a strategic mix depending on the segment. In German property and casualty insurance, it is best to drive with 80% interest-bearing, 15% stocks and 5% real estate, explains Achleitner. This helps to almost halve the group risk through diversification.
    • Why does the division currently only hold 8% of its investments in stocks? Allianz acts opportunistically - and calls this tactical asset allocation. The German company ADAG alone sold shares worth 15 billion euros from mid-2007 to the end of 2008 with an average DAX level of more than 7,000 points, Achleitner calculates. Across the group, the equity quota was 9% at the end of the year (...). This is 3 points less than a quarter earlier.
    • Achleitner does not want to demonize investments in stocks. Finally, the returns significantly outperformed other forms of investment. In the years 2004 up to and including 2008, the group achieved a total return of 23.5 billion euros on an average investment of 59 billion euros, a good half through realized profits. For comparison: government bonds of the same value would have brought in arithmetically 14.2 billion euros, corporate bonds only 3.7 billion euros.


Despite all the juggling of numbers: The insurance industry's investment portfolios remain a risk that is difficult to calculate, even for the industry itself. The reason: "It's not a good time to buy, even when prices are low, because you don't know what's going to happen to the assets."

    • Despite all the juggling of numbers: The insurance industry's investment portfolios remain a risk that is difficult to calculate, even for the industry itself. Allianz CEO Michael Diekmann, for example, rules out acquisitions in US life insurance companies when asked by analysts. The reason: "It's not a good time to buy, even when prices are low, because you don't know what's going to happen to the assets."
    • The capital market has just given the all-clear for Allianz. Because the insurer surprised at the end of February with a very solid capitalization, which avoids the risk of a capital increase for the time being. As of February 18, the solvency ratio was 159%, said Controlling Board Member Helmut Perlet, although since the beginning of the year EUR 500 million in write-offs had to be digested (without the Commerzbank package). A collapse of the stock market by another 30% in one fell swoop would bring depreciation of 1.8 billion euros over three quarters, but it would only lower the solvency ratio by 15 percentage points. Interest rates 1 percentage point lower cost 2 percentage points in solvency.


Escape to quality

    • Escape to quality
    • The Group sees capital buffers for Allianz in several places for a worst-case scenario. For example, the group has unrealized profits of 2.5 billion euros in shares. At 87%, however, the majority of investments are in fixed-income assets (...). Achleitner emphasizes that there have been no substantial rating changes since the third quarter, despite the turbulence in the market: "This is a strong statement about our fixed-income portfolio." A good capital structure is important in times when customers are also fleeing to the financially strong Companies play a major role.


Allianz investment portfolio of EUR 365 billion

  • Allianz investment portfolio of EUR 365 billion

    • Asset allocation at the end of 2008 (source: Allianz, Börsen-Zeitung March 21, 2009)
      • Interest carriers 87%, creditworthiness of the interest carriers
        • 50% AAA
        • 12% AA
        • 26% A.
        • 6% BBB
        • 1% non-investment grade
        • 5% without rating
      • Shares 9%, regional distribution
        • Germany 23%
        • Europe (rest) 56%
        • NAFTA 7%
        • Other countries 14%
      • Real estate 2%
      • Liquidity 2%





Do'stlaringiz bilan baham: